Optimum Powertrain Fleet Distribution for Freight across Chicago Metropolitan Area

The impact of advanced vehicle technologies on energy consumption and cost highly depends on the vehicle usage. While most studies have considered either standard cycles (e.g., HWFET and UDDS for the US) or few representative real world driving cycles, considering the diversity of vehicle usage currently but also in the future based on connectivity, automation, new modes… is required to understand where each technology fits best from a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) perspective).

The SMART Mobility Workflow was used to represent a wide set of scenarios. As part of the process, POLARIS was used to generate routes, SVTrip to generate stochastic vehicle speed profiles that are used by Autonomie EXPRESS to estimate energy consumption and cost.

The energy consumption for each vehicle and duty cycle is determined using 5 different powertrains (conventional, mild and full hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric) and TCO is then calculated based on VMT, vehicle purchase price and energy price. The powertrain providing the lowest TCO is then selected. When considering Medium and Heavy Duty truck applications across Chicago Metropolitan area, one notices that while the market penetration of electrified powertrain significantly increases over time, the fleet distribution consistently remains a mix of all powertrain considered. In addition, high technology progress (e.g., fast decrease in battery cost) is required to achieve significant battery electric vehicle (BEV) penetration, especially for Heavy Duty.

CT (Current Technology), ST (Short Term), MT (Medium Term), LT (Long Term); low (Low technology progress), high (high technology progress)

One of the main factor influencing the technology impact is Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT). As shown below, it is critical for advanced technologies to drive long distances in order to offset the initial purchase cost.

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