Critical Battery Material Demand Estimation Key to Supply Chain Assessment

In 2024, nearly 1.5 million electrified vehicles were sold in the US, a number expected to significantly increase in the near future. As a result, Argonne researchers have assessed the US manufacturing supply chain [1] as well as the critical material [2] required by the US electric vehicle industry.

To support the analysis, Argonne researchers estimated the US battery demand using TechScape. TechScape assesses the impact of decarbonization strategies by integrating multiple databases into a coherent framework. In that case, the annual capacity demand was estimated using individual vehicle characteristics with Autonomie combined with sales forecast for passenger car (BNEF EV outlook) and medium and heavy duty vehicles (NREL TEMPO). Total demand for rechargeable batteries in the United States is modeled to grow steadily from 100 GWh in 2023 to 1,080 GWh in 2030 to 1,590 GWh in 2034. This growth is largely due to increasing market shares of electric vehicles.

Figure: United States Lithium-ion Battery Demand through 2035 [1]

The battery pack characteristics (e.g., power, energy) were used in combination with BatPaC to quantify the individual material demand. The US demand was then compared with different supply options. ANL-High projects that 2023 demand for lithium will increase by 16x, nickel by 13x, cobalt by 9x, and manganese by 46x in 2035. ANL-Low projects 2023 demand for lithium to increase by 10x, nickel by 8x, cobalt by 6x, manganese by 25x in 2035. Significant growth in the demand for these materials underscores the importance of strategies to grow supply chains.

Figure: US Battery Material Demand [2]

Sources
[1] Gohlke, D. and all, Quantification of Commercially Planned Battery Component Supply in North America through 2035, ANL-24/14, March 2024, https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2319242
[2] Barlock, T. and all, Securing Critical Material for the U.S. Electric Vehicle Industry, ANL-24/06, February 2024, https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2319240